Category SPX

Protected: New Industry Out-Performance Idea Presents Opportunity for Alpha

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Central Banks Have Done an Excellent Job of Back-Stopping Global Risk Appetite

The chart below plots the average path that U.S. secular bear markets (1901-1921; 1929-1942; 1966-1982) have taken through history and compares it to the path the current (presumed) secular bear of 2000-2012. The path of the current had plotted nearly perfectly with the average leading into point (A) in summer/fall 2011. ¬†At that point in […]

Protected: Working Thesis for 2013

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Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years

Dating back to June of this year we have been suggesting that the potential for a longer-term reversal in the USD could lead to small-caps sustainably under-performing the broader market. We continue to believe this today. Even if the USD fails to rally, the mere possibility of its downside beginning to abate in the future […]

SPX Break-out Appears Confirmed

Last week we had a post suggesting the SPX was breaking out in a big way on Wednesday the 12th. We noted at the time that the move higher would need to include the market holding there through the end of the week to confirm the break-out. That failed to happen as the SPX sold […]

Airlines Continue to Out-Perform the Broader Market but is the Pace Set to Accelerate?

The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. FAA (airline ETF). Note that this week the ratio is breaking below support line (1) and seemingly falling back into a channel whose bottom is defined by line (2). If the break is for real, the pace of the ratio’s decline could be set to […]

Protected: Analog Update: You Can’t Stop this Bull, You can Only Hope to Contain it

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