The chart below plots the ratio of the KBW Regional Bank Index vs. the XLF.
As it rises, regional banks out-perform; as it falls the XLF out-performs.
The ratio is breaking below trend-line support and a multi-year consolidation pattern.
That break-down resembles one that occurred in 2005 which led to XLF out-performing the regional index by ~25% over the next two years.
The same may be set to occur now.