Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?

The chart below shows that commercial hedgers have amassed the largest net long position in the metal since 2004.

At the same time, large speculators have amassed one of the largest short positions they’ve ever held over the same period.

Now, there’s no reason to believe either group can divine the future, but for whatever reason commercial hedgers have always bet right and large speculators wrong, when it comes to calling inflection points in the future direction of copper prices since 2004.

Maybe commercial users are very dialed in to what end market demand looks like for the metal.

In addition to this large spread opening up b/t the net longs held by commercial users and net shorts held by large speculators, the metal itself is sitting on trend-line and 38.2% Fib support.

Collectively, if history holds, all of the above would seem to provide a decently bullish set-up for the metal.

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