Prefacing this post with the caveat that this is NOT a long or short call on AAPL into EPS tonight.
This said, wanted to update the AAPL vs. Silver analog we had pointed out before and that the technical set-up in AAPL is interesting right here, pre-EPS tonight.
As far as the analog goes, it appears to have broken down. At this juncture from their respective comparative beginnings, Silver was up much more than AAPL is right now.
This does not imply AAPL can’t continue to rise. It merely suggests that the parabolic rise suggested by the analog has yet to come to fruition.
Technically, the stock sits atop two and three decade-old support lines (1) and (2) right now in the chart below.
These lines were formerly resistance until AAPL rallied aggressively in early 2012 up to ~640. By doing so it broke above this resistance.
Old resistance is now new support.
Should this support hold and should AAPL continue to impress with its quarterly results and outlook tonight, the stock could target ~850 in short order.
This is the 423.6% Fib extension level off the 2003 lows and 2008 highs.
A break above the 52 week high of 644 would increase the likelihood this occurs.
A break below support lines (1) and (2) likely implies a ~13%-15% fall to 520 at a min, the swing low from this summer’s corrective lows for the stock.